- El Niño is intensifying rapidly across the Pacific Ocean, increasing the likelihood of extreme heat, floods, droughts and disruptive weather worldwide.
- The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts that the current event could become “very strong”, with its peak expected towards the end of 2026.
- There is now a near-100% probability that El Niño will continue through February 2027, marking one of the strongest levels of certainty ever expressed by the UN weather agency.
A Growing Climate Threat
- Scientists have identified an enormous reservoir of unusually warm water beneath the tropical Pacific, which could continue fuelling El Niño in the coming months.
- In parts of the Pacific, subsurface temperatures were more than 8°C above normal during July and early August.
- The phenomenon is developing against a backdrop of already record-warm oceans and a planet significantly affected by greenhouse gas emissions.
- UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that “El Niño is being supersized before our eyes,” describing the situation as evidence that the planet is entering “uncharted waters.”
Ocean Temperatures Climb Rapidly
- The closely monitored Niño 3.4 index averaged 1.5°C above normal between May and July.
- By July, the index had reached 2°C above normal, while weekly readings between late July and mid-August climbed as high as 2.6°C above normal.
- Persistent heat beneath the ocean’s surface suggests that the warming is not temporary and that El Niño still has significant energy to intensify further.
Uneven but Potentially Severe Global Impacts
- A very strong El Niño will not affect every country equally, but forecasters expect above-normal temperatures across much of the world’s surface between September and November.
- Characteristic El Niño weather patterns could bring:
- Heavy rainfall and flooding to some regions.
- Severe drought and water shortages to others.
- Extreme heat, placing additional pressure on communities, agriculture and energy systems.
- Other climate patterns, including a potential positive Indian Ocean Dipole and unusually warm Atlantic waters, could further complicate global weather conditions.
Unprecedented Preparedness Efforts
- The growing threat has triggered an unusually large international mobilisation to strengthen weather forecasting and early-warning systems.
- Governments and humanitarian organisations are being urged to prepare for potential disruptions to:
- Agriculture and food security.
- Public health.
- Energy systems.
- Water supplies.
- Vulnerable communities and economies.
- WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that the impacts of existing droughts and floods could worsen as El Niño reaches its peak.
The Bottom Line
- The current El Niño is already exceptionally strong—and its peak may still be months away.
- With global oceans and atmospheric temperatures already elevated, the event could amplify extreme weather risks across multiple regions.
- The key question facing governments and communities is no longer simply whether El Niño will strengthen, but how severe its global consequences will ultimately become.
